[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210501
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N15W 5N27W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 44W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA AND
SIERRA LEONE BETWEEN 10W-13W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
16W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W GULF OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY EXTENDING ALONG 26N93W INTO
MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN THEN NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA ALONG 28N89W TO 22N92W.
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND
OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA
CITY TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND THE FRONT. NORTHERLY SURFACE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
CENTERED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER NE TEXAS/SE OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDS S
OVER THE GULF W OF 87W. THIS IS PRODUCING A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS
OF 90 TO 120 KT ACROSS THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM NEAR TUXPAN
MEXICO TO TAMPA FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE
FRONT WITH CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AND EXITING THE AREA TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN OVER NW HAITI EXTENDING ACROSS E JAMAICA TO NEAR
15N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAITI AND PORTIONS OF
CUBA TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NE ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED
BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA S OF 12N W OF 80W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
BEYOND 32N33W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 140 KT IS N OF A
LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE ALONG 30N70W TO 27N50W.
A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES MUCH OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING IT. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING SW TO 24N60W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO NW HAITI WHERE IT DISSIPATES IN THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
24N66W TO BEYOND 32N45W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK 1019 MB LOW IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 30N69W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS EXPERIENCING FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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