[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N16W 2N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 39W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 10W-19W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 26W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NE GULF FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W AND CONTINUES S-SW ALONG 27N86W TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W AND INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN
MEXICO GULF COAST. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATES A STRONG LINE OF SCATTERED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM
JUST NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA SW TO THE FRONT NEAR 26N85W.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOLLOW WEST OF THE INITIAL LINE TO THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 25N...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 25N AND OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEST TO NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WEST OF THE FRONT AND ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY AS
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NE
MEXICO CONTINUES TO SETTLE SE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
LOCATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 94W. THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS DOMINATE A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE OF THESE TRADEWINDS ARE GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 9N-17N ALONG 82W...INCLUDING COASTAL AREAS OF
WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND INLAND AREAS OF NICARAGUA AND
FAR EASTERN HONDURAS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA. ALOFT...MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR
13N76W. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W-SW INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC REGION AS WELL AS E-NE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE W ATLC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND
BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE...AS THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N W OF 78W.
FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N41W
AND EXTENDS SW TO 25N52W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 22N68W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WITHIN 200 NM
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TRAILING ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 37N43W TO 29N53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A
1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N23W SW TO 20N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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