[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 6N20W 3N30W
1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL TO 1S53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W...
A CENTRAL U.S.A. DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PROPELLING THE CURRENT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1000 MB
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N87W...TO 25N90W
TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W. A TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF 26N. DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA
ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N79W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ALONG
29N. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE FLORIDA COAST NORTHWESTWARD
TO THE 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF
20N60W 26N55W BEYOND 32N58W...UNDER LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W
IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 19N91W 19N87W BEYOND 22N77W. THIS IS
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE ADVANCING
CENTRAL U.S.A. DEEP LAYER TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ALSO IS STAYING PRETTY MUCH TO THE SOUTH OF 10N...
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE
FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONTINUES FROM 15N60W...JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF DOMINICA TO 15N66W TO 17N71W. ABOUT FOUR-TENTHS OF
ONE INCH RAIN FELL IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY AND
SEVEN-TENTHS OF ONE INCH FELL IN SAN JUAN DURING THE LAST
24-HOUR PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 12/1200 UTC. RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC DEEP MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 49W TO THE NORTH OF 16N ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT THAT IS NEAR 33N29W TO 22N40W
TO 17N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 17N53W TO 15N60W.
A REMNANT CLOUD LINE CONTINUES FROM 15N60W INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO 15N66W TO 17N71W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 33N29W 17N53W COLD
FRONT...AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 22N19W TO 26N25W TO 30N26W.
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N26W TO THE 33N29W TRIPLE POINT.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N60W 20N47W
25N41W BEYOND 32N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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