[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 47W TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-38W...AND FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 43W-45W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 30N85W 20N88W. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MORE CONVECTION IS NOTED
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 84W.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW GULF W OF 86W AND
N OF 25N. 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE 15-20 KT S
WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS WITH A 130-150 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. A
BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE RAPIDLY E AND EXTEND FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO HONDURAS IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. FAIR
WEATHER WITH W TO NW WINDS WILL THEN DOMINATED THE ENTIRE
GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. WESTERLY WINDS ARE
W OF THE TROUGH WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E OF THE TROUGH. 15-20
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND W CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 20N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE COLD FRONT TO COME OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO 28N75W WITH CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM E OF THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 34N57W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
35N32W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S ALONG 32N28W 21N40W 17N50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 35W-55W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 35W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR...THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N71W
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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