[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N24W 1N32W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 51W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE GULF FROM A 1004 MB LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ACROSS FLORIDA S OF JACKSONVILLE TO NEAR CEDAR
KEY TO 29N85W WHERE A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO A 998
MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW ALONG 21N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO S OF TUXPAN.
THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INCLUDES THE NW GULF. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
AND CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
GULF FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-29N E OF 89W TO
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 26N89W
TO OVER MEXICO NEAR NEAR TAMPICO. AT 0600 UTC...A SECOND FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF EXTENDING ACROSS
VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE THEN
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO INLAND NEAR 23N98W AND AT 0900 UTC
ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ALONG 25N95W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER DOMINICA
ALONG 15N66W TO 17N71W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF SURFACE TROUGH
TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH DRY STABLE AIR ARE GIVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
ENE OF BERMUDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N
OF 27N W OF 73W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR W
ATLC S OF 27N W OF 76W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE W AND INTO CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 40W-65W SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N31W ALONG 21N40W TO
16N52W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 15N60W THEN BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS DOMINICA. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO 30N W OF
THE FRONT TO 47W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT CONTINUING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC WITH A 1020 MB HIGH SW OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 20N17W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE




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