[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N20W TO 2N30W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
2S50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 7W AND 16W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 16W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE
NORTH OF 26N. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 93W. A COLD
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER ABOUT 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO
MEXICO NEAR 24N100W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO TOWARD NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 16N67W
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM 16N71W EASTWARD ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. A SEPARATE STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...FROM VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THIS WIND REGIME IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 18N58W...THROUGH THE GUADELOUPE CHANNEL TO 16N64W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 16N64W TO 15N70W AND 13N75W.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
20N60W 17N66W 15N72W 13N77W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N57W TO 16N67W
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 43W AND
80W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS HAS UNDERGONE A CHANGE IN STRUCTURE. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 29N45W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 30N26W TO 27N36W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N36W
TO THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 24N46W AND 21N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 21N50W BEYOND 17N60W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N23W 28N40W
23N53W 18N63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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