[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 39W TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-16W...
AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 26W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N66W PRODUCING 15-25 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO AND LIGHTER WINDS W OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE NE GULF FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 85W-91W. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF FROM 23-31N BETWEEN
91W-97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS WITH A 130-150 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF
26N. EXPECT... A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS IN 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A 1006 MB LOW TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 17N60W TO 16N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 18N E OF
71W. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS OVER
60W PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT... A
LESSENING OF SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND SHOWERS TO FORM FURTHER W OVER PANAMA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N66W. A
1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N44W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N47W 19N55W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE FRONTS. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
27N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE WARM FRONT
FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 38W-42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN
90 NM OF THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM 32N18W TO 28N27W 27N35W. FURTHER S... A 1018 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 10N W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT...THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO NEAR 32N35W
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 17N55W WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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