[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N2W 5N10W 3N24W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 1W-26W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED E OUT OF THE GULF TO OVER THE W
ATLC ONLY COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS LOWER PRESSURE
MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE GULF. THE WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM REMAINS INLAND NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES
AND WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH HAS MOVED NE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXITING
THE GULF WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED IN
THE E PACIFIC TO OVER TEXAS AND CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 24N
E OF 92W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SE TO S SURFACE WINDS
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
INLAND OVER THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS IN THE GULF
WATERS N OF 28N FROM APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA TO MOBILE ALABAMA.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 91W TO INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NW GULF LATER TONIGHT WITH A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT
MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 16N65W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO 14N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN S
OF 15N E OF 66W AND THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
29N70W AND EXTENDS W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVIDING THE
AREA WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BAND OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE WEAK UPPER FLOW EXTENDING
WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 26N68W TO 24N80W THEN OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 25N FROM 45W-65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE E ATLC NEAR 32N27W EXTENDING TO 28N34W BECOMING STATIONARY
AND CONTINUING ALONG 22N47W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE N
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE ENTIRE FRONT.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED W OF THE FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N52W TO 23N57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH WSW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N24W
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 10N42W WHICH IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE






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