[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N3W 3N21W 2N40W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF 25W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES SHIFT E COVERING ONLY THE FAR E
GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS LOWER PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVER
THE W GULF. THE WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS INLAND
MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT E AS A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INCLUDING THE NE GULF. A SECOND
UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE SW GULF ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC TO OVER MEXICO WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING TO OVER TEXAS.
BOTH UPPER RIDGES CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE GULF FROM THE E PACIFIC AND IS PRODUCING A BAND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF 25N E OF 88W ACROSS EXTREME
S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. SE TO S SURFACE WINDS
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
INLAND OVER THE SE US AND OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 28N FROM
APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WED NIGHT WITH A SECOND
REINFORCING FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND MOVE SE
OUT OF THE GULF LATE FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 17N65W
WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR 14N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT/SHEAR AXIS E OF 68W AND WITHIN
150 NM NW W OF 68W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
70W-81W WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
28N73W AND EXTENDS W TO OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING
THE AREA WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING WITHIN 90 N M OF 25N E OF 74W TO OVER S FLORIDA. A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N
FROM 40W-70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR
32N29W EXTENDING TO 25N45W BECOMING STATIONARY CONTINUING INTO
THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NW OF THE
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N58W TO 26N55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N26W
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 11N42W WHICH IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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