[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 45W TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 15W-21W...
AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W
PRODUCING 10-15 SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN
82W-88W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM
29N-31N BETWEEN 86W-89W. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF FROM 25-30N BETWEEN 89W-95W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH A
130-150 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. EXPECT... A COLD
FRONT TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS
EXTENDING AS FAR E AS SE LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AT 18N60W TO S OF HISPANIOLA AT 16N72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS OVER 65W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. EXPECT... CONTINUED
SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N31W TO 28N40W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 23N50W
18N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 46W-52W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1021 MB HIGH IS W
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 10N W OF 50W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 50W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 5N45W.
EXPECT THE ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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