[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N29W 1N44W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ E OF 27W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
4N10W 2N18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF IS BEGINNING TO
GIVE WAY AND SHIFT E AS LOWER PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE W GULF.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAIN STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SHIFT E AS A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. THE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO
AND THE GULF FROM THE E PACIFIC GENERATING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. E TO SE SURFACE WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING TO GENERATE SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N93W TO
OVER THE NE GULF COAST NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND AFFECTING THE
AREA FROM APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA TO ATCHAFALAYA BAY
LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AS THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WED EVENING WITH A
SECOND REINFORCING FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND
WILL MERGE WITH INITIAL FRONT ON FRI MOVING SE OUT OF THE GULF
LATE FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE GUADELOUPE
PASSAGE CONTINUING ALONG 13N72W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
11N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN 40W-70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM SW HAITI NEAR 18N73W 13N77W TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120
NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E
GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY DRIFT
NW BEFORE DISSIPATING WED NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
PROVIDING THE AREA GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N FROM 40W-70W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N39W
EXTENDING ALONG 23N47W BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 20N51W INTO THE
NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE GUADELOUPE PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE
COLD FRONT N OF 28N AND WITHIN 225 NM NW OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 31N45W 26N49W TO 25N52W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
28N25W AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 22N26W WHICH IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE






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