[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N21W 2N31W 2N40W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF 28W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES SHIFT E AS LOWER PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE W GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS INLAND OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE ALSO CONTINUES TO
SHIFT E AS A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TO OVER
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING THE NW GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF
FROM THE E PACIFIC GENERATING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SE TO S SURFACE WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 25N95W TO OVER THE NE GULF COAST ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR THE
BIG BEND AREA. DENSE LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
OVER THE W GULF AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E AND
THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WED EVENING WITH
A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND
WILL MERGE WITH INITIAL FRONT ON FRI MOVING SE OUT OF THE GULF
LATE FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER GUADELOUPE CONTINUING
ALONG 14N69W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90/120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N
BETWEEN 35W-70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM S OF HAITI NEAR 17N73W ALONG 12N77W TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND IS INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND NEAR 28N77W
AND A 1017 MB HIGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N58W PROVIDING
THE AREA GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 35W-70W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W EXTENDING ALONG
28N41W BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 24N45W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN
OVER GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED WELL BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N68W TO
28N71W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE TROUGH N OF 31N. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED
RIDGE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N24W AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 22N23W
WHICH IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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