[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N11W ALONG 5N20W
3N30W 1N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COASTLINE NEAR 1S48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 18W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
KEEPING THE ERN GULF UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS E OF 87W...INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING
DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG
88W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN FROM THE E PACIFIC AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE
GENERATING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SE WINDS UP TO
20 KT ARE ACROSS THE NW GULF ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINATION IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 24N W OF 88W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SW MISSISSIPPI AS INDICATED BY RADAR
IMAGERY. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO DRIFT EWD ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND DOMINICA CONTINUING ALONG
14N66W TO THE NW VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 25 NM NW OF THE FRONT N OF 15N IMPACTING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT S OF
15N. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC WITH AXIS CONTINUING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N75W 12N77W TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR
8N76W DEPICTING A LINE OF CONVERGING WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ERN PACIFIC BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
AIR ALOFT. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NW
BEFORE DISSIPATING WED NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
IMPACTING THE FAR SW N ATLC PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N42W 24N49W BECOMING STATIONARY
NEAR 18N56W TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
150 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED BEHIND
THIS AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG 31N48W 27N50W 24N54W. FARTHER
E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N25W
KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NE SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 4N47W TO 23N27W TO N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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