[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON MAR 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N28W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 44W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-14W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 17W-23W AND WITHIN 150 NM NORTH
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS
ANCHORED OVER SE ALABAMA BY A 1024 MB HIGH RESULTING IN OVERALL
FAIR WEATHER E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
RIDGE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SE CONUS ALONG 90W.
WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT WITHIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
LOW-LEVEL AIR W OF 90W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N
W OF 92W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND SW
LOUISIANA GULF COASTS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING SE WINDS TO SPREAD
OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED. THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN TEXAS IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS
GULF COAST LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N61W THEN SW TO ARUBA
AND INTO NW VENEZUELA NEAR 11N71W. OVERRIDING MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 18N62W
TO 13N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
15N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 25N55W TO 14N70W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. N TO NE
SURFACE FLOW AND DRY STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
E TO SE SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION SE OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER SE OF A LINE FROM
MARTINIQUE TO NEAR BONAIRE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N43W AND
CONTINUES SW ALONG 24N50W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER
GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT N OF 24N...WHILE S OF 24N SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
240 NM NW AND 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 31N50W TO 23N57W AND MORE LARGELY REFLECTS A
STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS THAT IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT FARTHER EAST. THIS TROUGH AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 20N62W TO BEYOND 32N49W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO
BE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH AND EASTERN ATLC...A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED W OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N24W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 05N52W TO BEYOND 32N25W
IS PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net