[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1140 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
6N11W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W TO THE
NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ50W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
FROM 10W TO 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE
STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE IS MARKED BY A 1022 SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST BASIN NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MARINE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST AND
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
22N. LOOK FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE
NEXT DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH THE ISLAND OF GUADELOUPE...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS  THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE WESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR MARACAIBO. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT...AS WELL
AS CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...ANGUILLA...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MARINE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW ANYWHERE WEST OF THE FRONT...AND EASTERLY FLOW ELSEWHERE
EAST OF THE FRONT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
BASIN IS BANKING SOME LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG 60 NM OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SWINGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N48W
20N55 ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH GUADELOUPE AS A STATIONARY
FRONT. MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 160 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 23N. WEAKER CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM
WEST OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 23N. FURTHERMORE...A SURFACE TROUGH
IS LOCATED WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...ALONG 30N50W 25N55W
22N62W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY THE SAME DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK CONVECTION IS
FOUND WITHING 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...WITH
THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE NEAR 27N24W. FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 55W...FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS SLOWLY ENTERING THIS REGION. LOOK FOR
THE FRONT TO START MOVING EASTWARD AT A FASTER PACE...BECOMING A
COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net