[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 7N12W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W TO THE
NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ49W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
FROM 18W TO 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE
STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE IS MARKED BY A 1024 SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST BASIN NEAR 28N85W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TYPE OF FLOW IS
BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHILE THE NEXT DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
NORTHWEST BASIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
13N71W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS
CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO
RICO...ANGUILLA...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MARINE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
ANYWHERE WEST OF THE FRONT...AND EASTERLY FLOW ELSEWHERE EAST OF
THE FRONT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN BASIN IS
BANKING SOME LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG 60 NM OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SWINGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N43W...EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 24N52W INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH ANTIGUA
AND BARBUDA. SATELLITE INFRA-RED DATA SHOWS MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 22N. WEAKER CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF 22N.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N26W. FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST OF 57W...FROM A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT IS SLOWLY ENTERING THIS REGION. LOOK FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO START TO MOVE EASTWARD AT A FASTER PACE...BECOMING A
COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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