[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
6N10W TO 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 13W-20W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS PRODUCING SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY
EASTERLY AT 10-15 KT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NE GULF E OF
93W AND N OF 24N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...TO INCLUDE THE W
GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE...HAS BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH 110-130 KT JETSTREAM WINDS OVER
THE N GULF N OF 24N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE GULF WHILE
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT... RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 20N61W TO
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 16N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW TO
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 12N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 71W-73W. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
12N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DRIFT E
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO
26N50W TO 20N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
28N-32N BETWEEN 42W-50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BETWEEN 30W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC S
OF 20N AND E OF 30W. EXPECT...THE ATLANTIC FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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