[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT MAR 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N12W 4N20W 1N30W 2N41W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR AN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 15W-20W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 31W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO MOST OF THE GULF THIS
EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE BANKING SOME
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW GULF AND
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE E US SOUTH TO OVER THE E GULF AND INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 23N E OF 92W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC EXTENDING ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER THE SW GULF. A
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT IS OVER THE GULF N OF A
LINE FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUING INTO THE W ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT E ALLOWING RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF BY MON
THROUGH TUE WITH THE NEXT FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS ALONG 15N72W TO OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA/PANAMA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
FRONT AND 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN. THE S EXTENSION OF A JETSTREAM ENTERS THE N CARIBBEAN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH WINDS
OF 90 TO 110 KT N OF 20N. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER
VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN UPPER
WESTERLY FLOW. THE SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
22N E OF 50W TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N40W EXTENDING ALONG 25N51W INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE REGION
EXTENDING TO NEAR 33N73W AND WILL ENTER THE REGION DURING THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE
AND 325 NM NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A JETSTREAM ENTERS THE W
ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE EXTREME N
CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 160 KT NW OF A LINE FROM
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N33W. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ALL OF THE E ATLC WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N28W AND THE
UPPER RIDGE BY AN UPPER HIGH JUST NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 19N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE






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