[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
7N10W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W TO THE
NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
TO 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG AND ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REACHING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGING SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ALOFT. MARINE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LOW
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/DRIZZLE OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WEST OF
92W. COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BASIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE NEXT DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...BECOMING A TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 18N65W 15N71W 11N75W. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS SWINGING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS...IS ENHANCING THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THESE
ISLANDS NORTH OF 16N. THEREFORE...OVERCAST SKIES WITH SCATTER
SHOWERS COVER THE MENTIONED ISLANDS...AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
INFRA-RED AND RADAR IMAGERY. ALSO...SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 27N50W
21N60W...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE. SATELLITE INFRA-RED DATA SHOWS MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 160 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF 27N. WEAKER
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
OF 27N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...A SURFACE 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 25N33W CONTINUES TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE SEEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...EAST OF 43W. THE FAR
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS ALSO EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEST OF 65W. LOOK FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


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