[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N11W TO 5N20W 3N30W
4N42W TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A.
AND IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS GAINING FORCE
LITTLE BY LITTLE. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS
TO 29N109W IN MEXICO TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR
26N112W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT THIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE.THE DEVELOPING TROUGH MEANS THAT UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM INTERIOR MEXICO ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE U.S.A. GULF COAST
STATES. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE WEST OF 29N83W 23N89W
18N95W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT
RUNS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 29N74W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE COLOMBIA
COASTAL WATERS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FT TO 16 FT. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST IS
FOR THE WINDS TO BE AT LESS THAN GALE FORCE. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FORMING AS THE WIND FLOW FROM THE WATERS
BLOWS INLAND. SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
COMPARATIVELY HIGHER-ELEVATION AREAS FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 13N
TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W...AND FROM THE GULF
OF HONDURAS TO BELIZE NEAR 17N89W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS SUPPORTING THE 32N50W
27N53W 23N60W 22N65W COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W AND 80W. THE WESTERLY FLOW GOES RIGHT UP TO THE FLOW
THAT IS AROUND THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH
AND ITS ACCOMPANYING 998 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N32W. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD LINE
THAT MARKS THIS FRONT. A 998 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
27N32W. THIS LOW CENTER IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS ALONG 32N37W 28N31W TO 25N23W. ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
ULTIMATELY EMANATES FROM THE 998 MB LOW CENTER IS A COLD FRONT
THAT IS ALONG 27N24W 22N26W 17N32W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE
CONTINUES FROM 17N32W TO 13N40W TO 11N50W TO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE AREA FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. TWO OTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE SPINNING AROUND THE LOW CENTER...MOSTLY
REPRESENTING OTHER RE-INFORCING MASSES OF COMPARATIVELY COLDER
AIR. THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS ALONG 27N29W 24N31W 23N35W...AND
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N35W TO 25N41W TO 29N44W. THE SECOND FRONT
IS COLD...FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N32W 25N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT





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