[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM N LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W ALONG 4N20W
3N30W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 20W-24W...AND
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE RIDGE PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOW
SHIFTED E INTO THE SW N ATLC ALLOWING SLY RETURN FLOW TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN GULF. ALOFT...MOIST SWLY FLOW COVERS THE
BASIN AROUND THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE SW UNITED STATES. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW GULF ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD SUPPORTING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HRS. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
A SHEAR LINE ENTERS THE SE CARIBBEAN LINING THE VENEZUELA COAST
FROM NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ALONG 11N61W TO 11N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 75W-77W NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE
WINDS ARE SUPPORTED BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N68W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N47W
CONTINUING ALONG 26N50W 23N56W WHERE IT LOSES FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO N OF HAITI NEAR
28N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO NEAR 32N43W SUPPORTS
THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1000 MB LOW IS NEAR
28N30W. TWO SETS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACCOMPANY THE LOW. THE
FIRST IS TIGHTLY KNIT AROUND THE LOW CENTER WITH AN OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER ALONG 29N29W 27N27W CONTINUING
AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 23N30W 23N35W TO WHERE IT BECOMES A
SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 31N45W. THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS MORE
REMOVED FROM THE LOW CENTER. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE
NE QUADRANT ALONG 32N35W 31N27W 27N24W AND CONTINUES AS A COLD
FRONT ALONG 21N26W 17N32W BECOMING A SHEAR LINE ALONG 13N41W
11N52W TO TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE OUTERMOST FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 24N BETWEEN
16W-26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ELSEWHERE. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW
EXTENSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO NEAR 32N43W WHERE IT CONTINUES EWD ALONG 32N
TO JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net