[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W
CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W TO THE NORTHEAST
BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FOUND 180 NM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN LIBERIA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 1.5N TO 5.5N BETWEEN 16W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS COVERING THE GULF IS
NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD AS SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO SLOWLY
ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEEN TRANSPORTED FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST GULF. THEREFORE...UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SEEN IN THIS REGION MOSTLY WEST OF 90W. AT
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. COMPUTER
MODELS PROJECT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING...BRINGING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS TO
THE WESTERN BASIN FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MID
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SUBSIDENT DRY AIR
ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. ONLY REMNANT CLOUDINESS IS LEFT FROM A FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BASIN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTION OFF THE COASTS NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN
BELIZE. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...WITH
SEAS 12 TO 16 FT IN THIS AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR
ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE
1029 HIGH IS ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BRINGING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER TO THE WESTERN REGION. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIR
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WEST OF 65W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWEST ALONG 32N50W 28N52W 24N56W 22N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 140 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 36N50W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION
AHEAD OF IT.

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COMPLEX 999 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN NEAR 27N32W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ARE DEPICTED FROM THE CENTER LOW. BOTH BOUNDARIES START FROM THE
LOW AS OCCLUDED FRONTS. THE FIRST ONE ANALYZED EXTENDS AROUND
THE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND CONTINUES AS A COLD
FRONT ALONG 28N26W 24N25W 20N28W 17N31W...WHERE IT CONTINUES AS
A SHEAR LINE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SECOND ONE
EXTENDS AROUND THE LOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 27N30W 24N32W 22N34W...BECOMING
A TROUGH LINE EXTENDING TO 26N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM WITHIN THESE FRONTS.
NEVERTHELESS...SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRIMARY
AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE FIRST ONE IS FROM 24N TO
32N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 26N TO 32N
BETWEEN 27W AND 31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA


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