[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 4N8W ALONG 5N20W
5N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN
8W-13W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 20W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 46W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER NRN ALABAMA. THE RIDGE
IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT FOR THE WRN GULF WHERE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LINE THE MEXICO
AND TEXAS COASTLINE ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANTI-CYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE RIDGE REACHING 20 KT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND W GULF. ALOFT...MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS AROUND THE NRN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO FILTER ACROSS THE
WRN GULF SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA BEGINS TO PUSH EWD. EXPECT THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO SHIFT E AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NW GULF
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST EARLY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N74W TO 20N80W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A SHEAR LINE
ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN LINING THE VENEZUELA COAST FROM NEAR
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ALONG 12N66W TO 13N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SHEAR AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED
S OF HAITI FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 72W-77W. ALOFT...DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
77W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW N
ATLC PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA OF THE
BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG 77W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W CONTINUING
SW ALONG 26N61W TO TURKS AND CAICOS WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO NEAR 32N47W SUPPORTS
THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A 999 MB OCCLUDED LOW IS NEAR 28N35W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS AROUND THE LOW ALONG THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 29N28W 23N29W 18N34W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 12N49W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SHEAR
LINE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN
21N-28N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT
ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER N OF 26N E
OF 40W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
30N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON






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