[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W INTO THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 13W AND 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND 140 NM
NORTH OF THE ITCZ...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ON THE EASTER HALF OF THE GULF...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CONTINUES
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 27N83W. FROM THIS POINT IT BECOMES A WARM
FRONT AND CONTINUES IN THE SAME DIRECTION ALONG 28N85W TO NEAR
MOBILE ALABAMA. DOPPLER RADAR DISPLAYS WEAK CONVECTION 50 NM
NORTH OF BOTH FRONTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF FROM PORT ARTHUR ALONG 29N93W
26N95W TO 23N97W. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT AND IS FOUND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ENTERING THE
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS. THIS COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A 1000
MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER TAMPICO MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER AND CONTINUES ALONG THE MEXICO COAST
TO NEAR COATZACOALCOS. SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
LITTLE ACTIVITY WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS POSITIONED.

A RATHER TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF IS
PRODUCING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE REGION. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. MARINE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. ONLY AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS CREATING A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS OVER PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND WESTERN JAMAICA. THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE 996 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N55W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 30N52W...AND CONTINUES TO
EXTEND SOUTHWEST ALONG 24N60W 22N70W...BECOMING WEAK STATIONARY
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM HAS LEFT A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 62W AND 80W.
SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 350 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...COVERING AN AREA FROM 26N
TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W. GALE FORCE WINDS RELATED TO
THIS SYSTEM ARE OBSERVED NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 48W AND 62W WITH
SEAS 12 TO 20 FEET. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT.

ELSEWHERE EAST OF 45W...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA


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