[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W INTO THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND
WITHIN 140 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 38W AND
43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 29N83W AND CONTINUES
NORTHWEST ACROSS PENSACOLA. WEAK CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN
50 NM NORTH OF THIS FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 29N91W 26N94W 22N97W.
WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND IS
FOUND WITHIN 50 NM AHEAD OF IT. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING THE EASTERN LOUISIANA COAST NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THIS
COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN TEXAS. A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS 100NM EAST
OF TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RATHER TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF IS PRODUCING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KT OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. MARINE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE 993 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N51W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM
THE LOW CENTER ALONG 27N53W 24N56W 21N61W. FROM THIS POINT IT
BECOMES A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. DEW POINTS OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM HAS LEFT A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 78W. SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 350 NM EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT...COVERING AN AREA FROM 26N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W. GALE FORCE WINDS RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM ARE OBSERVED NORTH
OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS 10 TO 18 FEET.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. ALSO...TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CREATE GALE
FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 29N WEST OF 76W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

ELSEWHERE EAST OF 40W...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net