[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232325
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AT 47W. THE ITCZ IS FAIRLY INACTIVE WITH
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS JUST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND
ABOUT TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
WEAKENING ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE S TEXAS COAST. A 997 MB LOW WAS
CENTERED BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND BUOY 42020 JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE. FURTHER EAST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
FROM NEAR BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA SOUTHEAST TO 25N84W WHERE IT
BECAME A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WERE NOTED NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS THE ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI COASTS. A RATHER TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES OVER THE GULF AND IS PRODUCING 20 KT SE TO S WINDS
OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY LATE SUN WITH INCREASING NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RATHER FLAT RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 84W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA IS SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD WHILE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER
LAX WITH RESULTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADEWINDS. A 1422
UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MOST OF
THE BASIN SOUTH OF 15N. PATCHES OF SHOWERS WERE NOTED SOUTH OF
CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 77W-82W...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 78W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 25N65W 24N70W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND N OF 28N. A
991 MB STORM CENTER WAS JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
33N61W. THIS LOW WAS PRODUCING GALE FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SEAS OF UP TO 14 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS
WERE ALSO NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. THE GALES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE
SUBSIDING. IN THE MEANTIME SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 20
FT ALONG 31N BY LATE SUN. REFER TO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

FURTHER E...1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
NEAR 37N20W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH
32N27W 25N40W TO 20N55W. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WERE OCCURRING
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE MAINLY EAST OF 40W.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
INTO THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 70W WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-67W.
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FROM EQ-32N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
COBB




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