[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N43W 1N48W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
26W-31W...FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 35W-38W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 90 NM INLAND OVER S TEXAS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 96W-98W.
FURTHER SE...A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER S FLORIDA ALONG 25N80W 25N83W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LOUISIANA ALONG 27N87W 29N90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A RATHER TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE TO S WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS IS OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WHILE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT...THE TEXAS COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOUR
WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 77W-81W...AND OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 78W-84W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 19N81W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER PANAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO STRENGTHEN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W 27N63W 25N70W
TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-60W. FURTHER E...THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 29N10W
28N13W 28N17W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
55W-70W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FROM
EQ-32N. EXPECT...THE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N45W IN 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION N OF 23N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

FORMOSA





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