[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS OBSERVED FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
6N10W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 2N30W 1N40W INTO THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND NORTH OF THE ITCZ
FROM 3W TO 5W BETWEEN 30W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROVIDING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR...PREVENTING ANY MAJOR CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST
INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N82W 25N85W 26N90W. FROM THIS POINT IT
CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR
GALVESTON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY AND WARM FRONT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. SHIP AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WEST OF 90W...HAVE
INCREASED UP TO 25 KT. IN 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE WESTERN GULF...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. MARINE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE 994 MB LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 35N60W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N62W...AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND IN THE
SAME DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W.
SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...COVERING AN AREA
FROM 26N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 52W AND 62W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED MAINLY EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N...AND EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N67W. THESE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...A SURFACE 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
35N22W...PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN REGION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC CROSSING THE CANARY
ISLANDS...BRINGING WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE ISLANDS. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA




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