[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE CENTRAL
COAST OF LIBERIA AT 8N13W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2N30W
EQ40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR ILHA DE MARAJO AT EQ50W. WEAK
CONVECTION IS FOUND NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 33W
AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
ENTIRE BASIN...BRINGING A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTER WEAK SHOWERS
WITHIN 80 NM OFF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. SHIP AND
OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WHILE LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEEN TRANSFERRED FROM THE EAST TROPICAL PACIFIC INTO
THE BASIN. THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST AT A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER TO NORTHERN PANAMA ALONG 18N72W 16N75W 14N78W
12N79W 9N82W. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED TO THE WEST OF THE
SHEAR LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND IS ANALYZED FROM THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA ALONG 18N67W 15N70W 12N73W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
A LINE OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THIS TROUGH. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE TROUGH...RELATIVELY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS
THIS REGION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES. A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N40W...AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N50W 21N60W
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THIS FRONT IS BEEN SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THIS FRONT IS
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS...BRINGING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA




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