[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N09W 3N30W 2N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 31W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED BY A
PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS SURFACE
FEATURE IS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LIGHT NE TO E WINDS UP TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF. W OF 92W...E TO SE WINDS UP TO
15 KT ARE OCCURRING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE FAR NW GULF WATERS. MOIST SWLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AND IS
ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
BASIN. AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG 98W SLIDES
NORTHEASTWARD...IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF
23N W OF 92W. AS THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST
ALONG 104W MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...SE
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF
EARLY FRIDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE
OFF THE NE MEXICO COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS A SHEAR LINE
THAT IS ANALYZED ENTERING THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 15N78W TO THE
COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. CONVERGENT NORTHERLY WINDS
FROM ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY
WITHIN 250 NM NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. FARTHER EAST...CONVERGENT
EASTERLY TRADES ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOCUSED WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM PUERTO RICO
SW ALONG 15N72W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W.
ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N71W CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS
PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF
QUICK PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY
TRADES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GENERALLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W
OF 60W BEHIND A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
AXIS ALONG 32N48W TO 26N70W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N53W TO NEAR 28N58W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N46W TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N35W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N50W TO 20N68W AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AS A SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
28N22W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 19N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN



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