[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING
THE ITCZ ALONG 50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL ALONG THE EQUATOR
NEAR 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WATERS TO THE
SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH MEXICO ALONG 107W...
THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. TO 25N. A CORRESPONDING UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN TEXAS NEAR 29N99W.
MOIST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
10N103W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 21N93W...AND THEN
WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N93W 24N88W BEYOND 25N80W
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED MUCH MORE TO THE EAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW NOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 29N AND REALLY
FROM THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COAST EASTWARD BEYOND 80W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FROM TEXAS
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO IN ORDER TO BE GENERATING GALE-FORCE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEAR THE BORDER WITH HAITI TO 16N76W 13N80W TO WESTERN COASTAL
PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. BROKEN STRATIFORM CLOUDS COVER THE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE LINE REMNANT
CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS. BROAD CLIMATOLOGICAL SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALONG A TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N79W
TO 13N75W TO 15N72W TO 17N70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA IN GENERAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH THAT IS IN COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTH OF 10N ALONG 77W/78W
IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 27N68W. CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH THIS TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
60W AND 80W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD FRONT WITH THIS
TROUGH REACHES 31N64W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N38W 25N50W 22N57W 21N65W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE COUNTRY AND ITS
BORDER WITH HAITI. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT WITH
THIS FRONT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N9W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 29N23W TO 25N37W 24N46W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR
AXIS IS ALONG 17N18W 19N35W 14N38W 5N40W 3N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT



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