[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W 2N50W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N91W. THIS
SURFACE FEATURE IS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS UP
TO 15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE
LIGHT NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
ALOFT...MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES AND CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
THE GULF W OF 88W. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PRECEDES THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE
THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO EMERGE OFF THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS A SHEAR LINE
THAT IS ANALYZED ENTERING THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 15N78W TO THE COAST
OF WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. CONVERGENT NORTHERLY WINDS FROM
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE. OTHER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FARTHER EAST...
CONVERGENT EASTERLY TRADES ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOCUSED S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-71W. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR
13N66W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W
WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS
PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT HOWEVER FOR A FEW
AREA OF QUICK PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
EASTERLY TRADES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE W ATLC AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO NEAR 31N72W. MOST ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REMAINING
N OF 30N AND WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E-NE TO A 1021 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 27N55W. SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC ALONG 22N63W 23N55W TO 26N49W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER
TO THE NE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W
AND EXTENDS SW TO THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 26N49W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NW EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS EXITING THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE NE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC N OF 30N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N23W. GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH
CENTER TO 23N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net