[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N30W 1N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 7W-21W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 24W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED ON A
1037 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FAR SE GULF COAST NEAR 30N94W.
THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WHILE LIGHT NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NW GULF. ALOFT...CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE W ATLC AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS CONFLUENCE IS
FURTHER AIDING AN ALREADY SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF...NE TO E SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM THE W ATLC CROSSING CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS SW ALONG
18N72W 15N78W TO THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. THIS
FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
THE W ATLC AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
PRIMARILY NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SE OF THE
FRONT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NE TO E TRADEWINDS UP
TO 25 KT CONTINUE AS NOTED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
VENEZUELA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 72W
WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS
PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWER ARE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN
66W-72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE W ATLC AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N64W WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SE TO 29N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT TRAILS S-SW FROM THE
LOW ALONG 25N66W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLD AIR IS LOCATED BEYOND THAT MARKED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N67W TO 27N75W. NORTHERLY WINDS TO GALE
FORCE ARE LOCATED NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W AND EXTENDS TO 29N58W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY REMAINING N OF 29N BETWEEN
48W-59W WITH THE COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N19W AND IS
PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
WSW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 25N40W TO NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEAR 22N62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN




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