[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA BORDER TO 5N20W TO 3N30W TO 2N40W
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL 1N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 17W...TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN
20W AND 24W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 30W AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL/EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA ALONG 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA
TO FLORIDA FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ALONG
80W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH FOLLOWS THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST
48 HOURS TO 72 HOURS...AND NOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
IS AROUND THE CENTER COVERS MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 98W
AND 114W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
FROM TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO IN ORDER TO BE GENERATING
STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN
SIDE OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AROUND A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS NOW
PASSES THROUGH 22N65W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FROM THE EASTERN
TIP TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
16N76W 13N80W TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATIFORM
CLOUDS COVER THE THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE
EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 15N73W TO THE COAST OF
PANAMA NEAR 10N80W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 27N70W TO THE
WATERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N61W...TO 27N61W TO 22N65W TO
THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF 31N57W
19N69W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST
OF THE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. GALE-FORCE WINDS EXIST BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND 73W TO THE NORTH OF 28N. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N16W TO 26N28W 23N51W 23N59W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT





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