[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N22W 2N51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 5W-19W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED ON A
1037 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR SW LOUISIANA NEAR 30N94W. THIS
SURFACE FEATURE IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF WHILE LIGHT NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NW GULF. ALOFT...CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GULF WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE W
ATLC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS CONFLUENCE IS FURTHER AIDING IN
AN ALREADY SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE GULF
BASIN. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
GULF...NE TO E SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE
W ATLC CROSSING EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDING WSW ALONG
18N72W 16N78W TO THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. THIS
FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE W
ATLC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY NW
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...CUBA...
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SE OF
THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NE TO E TRADEWINDS
UP TO 25 KT CONTINUE AS NOTED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
STABLE CONDITIONS PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N52W EXTENDING SW ALONG 27N60W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA
NEAR 20N70W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE
WITH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 31N67W THAT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WEST OF THE COLD FRONT IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A
STRONG 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SW LOUISIANA. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING W OF 70W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N21W IS PROVIDING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING WSW FROM THE
HIGH ALONG 25N40W TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN



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