[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 2N40W 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 3W-7W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 4W-10W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 14W-17W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 26W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. SURFACE
RIDGING IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. PRESENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 50'S OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
TEXAS TO THE UPPER 30'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...AND ARE
SLOWLY FALLING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SW FLOW. A 110-130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS
OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA. A REMNANT PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE
GULF FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTH FLORIDA. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. EXPECT...FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT TO EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS PALM BEACH
COUNTY FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING TOMORROW ENDING THE
WORST OF THE CURRENT COLD SPELL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 20N70W TO
18N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
15N81W 10N83W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF THE
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF
THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NW
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E
HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA IN 24 HOURS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO BEGIN SHORTLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 15N W OF FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N54W TO HISPANIOLA
ALONG 23N68W 20N70W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N26W.A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM
THE HIGH CENTER TO 22N55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 40W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE FROM 32N48W TO E
HISPANIOLA WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

FORMOSA



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