[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF LIBERIA AT 4.5N8W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG EQ
1N30W 2N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FOUND WITHIN 250 NM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF COTE D' IVOIRE.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W.
ALSO...WEAK CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W
AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
EXPAND AS STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN...BRINGING A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE REGION. SHIP AND
OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVER
MOST OF THE BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND BECOME
MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC ACROSS THE BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THIS REGION THROUGH
THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD
AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN JAMAICA. THEN...IT
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 16N78W 14N80W 12N81W TO
THE SOUTHWEST BASIN NEAR CENTRAL COSTA RICA. A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT ARE
CREATING NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE
MONA PASSAGE BY MONDAY OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL THEN STALL AND
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THIS
REGION.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N57W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 27N65W 23N70W
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS FRONT
IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY COMING OUT OF EASTERN UNITED STATES. INFRA-RED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION 160 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 26N. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N28W...BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTHERN AFRICA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT EXPANDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION WITHIN AND AHEAD OF IT. COMPUTER MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA




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