[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 2N25W 1N31W 2N47W 1N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-6N E OF 19W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A
STRONG 1039 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. DENSE CLOUD
COVER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND EXTREME S FLORIDA JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF
83W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH
CLEARING SKIES WITHIN 60/90 NM ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TAMPA
FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY DIMINISHING LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER THE GULF. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW GULF MON THROUGH WED. RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE W GULF THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS COVER THE AREA...THUS EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING EXCEPT OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA
NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA OVER THE W TIP OF JAMAICA TO INLAND OVER
NE NICARAGUA TO NEAR 12N85W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER NW VENEZUELA
PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME REMNANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING INTRODUCED FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DENSE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA W OF A
LINE FROM THE TIP OF E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS E JAMAICA
ALONG 12N82W TO W PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE TODAY WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO N OF
CENTRAL PANAMA BY MON EVENING WHERE IT WILL THEN STALL AND
DISSIPATE BY TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WED DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN DIMINISH THU WITH
EASTERLY TRADES INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N58W AND EXTENDS
SW ALONG 27N69W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS E CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SW TO OVER THE W ATLC
N OF 25N W OF 70W. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 225/250 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO
BEYOND 32N63W AND COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF LINE FROM S FLORIDA NEAR FORT
LAUDERDALE TO BEYOND 32N70W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLEAR SKIES
WITHIN 60/90 NM ALONG THE US E COAST. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE E ATLC NEAR 32N12W EXTENDING S OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
27N16W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE






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