[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N21W 4N36W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N E OF 18W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1040
MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND A WEAKER 1033 MB HIGH
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING HAS LEFT IN ITS
WAKE DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF A LINE FROM
NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO JUST N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CLEAR SKIES WITHIN 60/90 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER THE
GULF. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE W GULF WED
NIGHT AND THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR SANCTI SPIRITUS EXTENDING ALONG 19N83W THE INLAND OVER
HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER NW VENEZUELA PROVIDING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING INTRODUCED FROM THE E
PACIFIC REGION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN PRODUCING DENSE CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM THE TIP OF
E CUBA ACROSS JAMAICA ALONG 16N80W TO COSTA RICA NEAR THE PANAMA
BORDER. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TODAY WITH STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO PANAMA BY EARLY TUE WHERE IT WILL THEN
STALL OUT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THEN WILL DIMINISH THU WITH EASTERLY TRADES INCREASING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS
SW ALONG 27N72W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANCTI SPIRITUS. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
SUPPORTING THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE N/CENTRAL
ATLC E OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SW TO OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N
W OF 70W. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 225
NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO BEYOND 32N68W AND
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC W OF LINE FROM S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI TO BEYOND 32N74W WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF CLEAR SKIES WITHIN 60/90 NM ALONG THE US E
COAST. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N16W
EXTENDING SSW OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N20W WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE





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