[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W ALONG 5N20W
3N30W 4N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST ALONG 4N47W TO EQ51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 33W-38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 47W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO W OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 28N86W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N86W 23N87W CONTINUING SW TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 21N90W 20N94W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE
LOW CROSSING FLORIDA AT FORT MYERS NEAR 27N82W CONTINUING EWD
ALONG 27N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ALONG 26N83W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...90 NM
AHEAD AND 30 NM BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS WELL AS COVERING
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 26N E OF 84W. RECENT
LIGHTNING DATA ALSO INDICATES AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 27N-29N
BETWEEN 87W-88W. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 90W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BUILD TO THE W
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A
LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE NW GULF
PROVIDING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N85W TO
19N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N
BETWEEN 81W-88W ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE ERN
SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 90W. A SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONT...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
FROM NEAR 18N62W TO S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA N OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-74W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS. ALOFT...SW FLOW COVERS THE
AREA AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 55W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT
IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS WITH IT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N67W
DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FLORIDA HAVE BEGUN
TO EXTEND OFF THE ERN COAST N OF 27N W OF 78W ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
69W-73W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N51W
CONTINUING S ALONG 26N53W 21N57W 18N62W BECOMING A SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. FARTHER E...A SECOND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N41W PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG 55W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N13W
CROSSING THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 22N23W DISSIPATING TO NEAR
20N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND 30 NM AHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE AZORES
ISLANDS TO NEAR 4N24W SUPPORTS THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON







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