[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 5N25W 4N35W 2N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 41W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A 1021 MB
HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE S TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W PRODUCING 15-20
KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. THE E GULF E OF
90W STILL HAS 25-30 KT NW SURFACE WINDS. BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 84W-93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE NE GULF IN
24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND DECREASING SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO THE BAY OF
HONDURAS ALONG 23N80W 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
S OF THE FRONT. 25 NW SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ALONG 18N60W
18N67W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE TROUGH. FURTHERMORE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 82W-84W.
A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING ONLY
MODERATE TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS OVER
THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS ALONG 60W PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT...THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA IN 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N76W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N57W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N43W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 28N50W 18N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 35W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 35W WITH AXIS ALONG
25W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO BE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N58W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S
TO PUERTO RICO. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E TO MOVE TO 32N30W IN 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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