[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 4N40W 1N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N88W 22N94W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS
SE FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N82W. THE WARM FRONT
LOCATION IS OBSCURED AND IS BASED ON WIND SHIFTS AND THETA-E
GRADIENT. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE COLD FRONT. RAIN IS ALSO OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N
AND E OF 88W. 20-30 KT NW SURFACE WINDS ARE W OF THE COLD FRONT.
10-15 SE SURFACE WINDS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE NW GULF S OF LOUISIANA N OF 25N BETWEEN 90W-96W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 31N90W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD IS
OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24
HOURS...25-30 KT NW WINDS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO S OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 19N60W 17N65W 17N73W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 17N E OF
73W. FURTHER W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
81W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
82W-84W. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING
ONLY MODERATE TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS
OVER THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W
PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT...THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N66W. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W 25N55W 19N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N17W TO
26N20W 21N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W WITH
AXIS ALONG 25W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW
TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S TO E CUBA. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E TO MOVE E TO 32N41W IN 24 HOURS. CONVECTION WILL
BE HEAVIEST N OF HISPANIOLA. THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
MOVE TO W AFRICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net