[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N30W 4N45W 1N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 29W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR
30N92W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 28N92W 24N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
28-32N BETWEEN 88W-90W. 20-30 KT NW SURFACE WINDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT. 10-15 SE SURFACE WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. A 1017 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 90W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR
31N92W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD IS OVER
THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 91W. MORE HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AN W CUBA S OF 26N E OF 83W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT... THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO BELIZE IN 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...25-30 KT NW WINDS
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO S OF JAMAICA ALONG 20N60W 17N65W 17N76W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 17N E OF
75W. FURTHER W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 82W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 81W-84W. A
RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING ONLY
MODERATE TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS OVER
THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W PRODUCING
SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT...THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO
BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND OVER HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N66W. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N56W 25N56W 20N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N20W TO 25N27W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 40W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W WITH AXIS ALONG
25W. EXPECT THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W IN 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
TO MOVE E TO 32N44W IN 24 HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVIEST N
OF HISPANIOLA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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