[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 5N8W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 5N30W 4N40W TO THE NE
BRAZIL COAST ALONG NEAR 3.5Q51W. NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
CONVECTION ARE NOTED NEAR OR ALONG THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO HAS
NOW MOVED OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
ONLY THE EXTENDED COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE
STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24W WITH A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE OTHER HAND...A NEW 1008 MB LOW
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST BASIN NEAR 27N84W. THIS LOW IS
BRINGING A SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. THUS...A NEW
COLD FRONT IS DEVELOPING FROM THIS SYSTEM...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE LOW CENTER ALONG 25N83W 23N85W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THE
LOW ENTERING THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM 25N TO 27N. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WEST OF 87W...WITH ONLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THIS
REGION. LOOK FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWEST TIP OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ALONG WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS ALONG 21N79W 19N82W
15N85W. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT ARE BEHIND
THE TROUGH. ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN BASIN...THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONT EXTEND ACROSS THE US/UK ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ALONG
18N63W 18N64W 18N67W. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTER SHOWERS WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
BASIN EAST OF 74W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS OF THE WESTERN BASIN WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
FROM 30W TO 70W...WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE AROUND TWO 1018
MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 29N36W AND 27N58W...PROVIDING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 8 TO 12 HOURS NORTH OF 26N WEST OF
65W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N48W
CONTINUING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N50W 21N53W 18N58W...BECOMING
A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER
EAST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N10W EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N14W 21N20W 19N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 160 NM BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 20 NM AHEAD OF IT. LOOK FOR
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


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