[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N36W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
IVORY COAST WEST AFRICA FROM 2W-5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MUCH OF THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE SW COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AT 26/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF
EXTENDING OVER GALVESTON TEXAS TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO OVER
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM E OF THE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF LAKE
CHARLES LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 26N96W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT MAINLY INLAND
AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF E TEXAS/W LOUISIANA. THE
UPPER SUPPORT IS A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OVER NW
GULF N OF 25N W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. A JETSTREAM HAS
REESTABLISHED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 140 KT.
BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE S GULF S OF
27N BETWEEN 84W-96W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/E PUERTO RICO ALONG 15N71W TO 12N77W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF 70W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND THE W TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF GUYANA SOUTH
AMERICA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75
NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. BROKEN/OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N58W EXTENDING
ALONG 25N58W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/E PUERTO RICO INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT AND S OF 22N TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES E OF 74W TO THE FRONT. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THIS FRONT IS A LARGE UPPER LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MOSTLY N OF 30N. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT
IS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N E OF 33W TO OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
NEAR 23N30W ALONG 19N50W TO THE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
GUADELOUPE. A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW IS JUST TO THE N OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 20N53W. A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W WITH A 997 MB LOW NEAR 28N28W
AND A 992 MB LOW NEAR 31N24W. THE 997 MB LOW IS WEAKENING AND IS
EXPECT TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE 992 MB LOW IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL N OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE



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