[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N29W 4N45W 2N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S
OF THE ITCZ FROM 18W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 22/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE E OF PENSACOLA EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N89W TO 25N94W
DISSIPATING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
BROWNSVILLE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE BIG
BEND REGION OF THE FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W ALONG 27N86W TO 25N89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS
FRONT IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
UPPER TROUGH N OF THE GULF WATERS. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GULF AND A JETSTREAM WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 160 KT IS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 21N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 23N86W ACROSS W CUBA TO OFF THE COAST OF E CUBA
NEAR 20N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THIS LINE
N OF 20N E OF 83W TO INLAND OVER CUBA. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT
IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W ALONG 15N64W TO OVER HAITI
NEAR 19N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS AND THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OVER THE W ATLC GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 73W. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER A PORTION OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018
MB HIGH SSE OF BERMUDA NEAR 28N66W. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
23N37W ALONG 20N54W INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER
THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 23N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE




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