[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 1N30W 1N40W INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 1N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 19W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 23/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA ALONG
26N85W TO 24N91W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 25N84W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
E OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS
BEGINNING TO INVADE THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF REGION. THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER TROUGH N OF THE GULF WATERS. A JET
STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 130-150 KT CROSSES THE N WATERS
WITH A NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THEN TURNING NE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED TO THE NORTH OF THIS BAND. A SECOND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THIS EVENING AND
RACE SE OF AREA LATE THU. STRONG NLY WINDS LIKELY REACHING GALE
FORCE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE W
GULF THU AND MOVE E FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL ACROSS W CUBA TO OFF THE COAST OF E CUBA INTO
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF E CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS
THEN CONTINUES WWD ACROSS PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER MAINLY DRY STABLE CONDITIONS. ALOFT...WLY FLOW DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN LATE WED AND STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA
RICA THU AND FRI. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC DRAWING MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OVER THE W ATLC GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W OF 70W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE IS OVER A PORTION OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
LOCATED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 26N53W. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
27N29W ALONG 20N50W INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 23N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR







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