[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6.5N10W...WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W EQ30W 3N40W TO THE NORTHEAST
BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2.5N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 10W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL TENNESSEE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF TO BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS ALONG 30N86W 27N90W 26N97W. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE BROAD
CONVECTION CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE NORTH-WESTERN FLORIDA COAST
FROM 28N TO 29N. WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 50 NM EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT.

OVER THE SOUTHEAST BASIN OF THE GULF...AN AREA OF CONVERGING
WINDS ARE CREATING AN AREA OF WEAK LOWER PRESSURE WITH A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
THE CENTRAL GULF TO WESTERN CUBA ALONG 24N89W 23N86W 22N83W.
SHOWERS ORIGINATING FROM THIS TROUGH ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF
26N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GULF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OF AIR
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP/STRONG
CONVECTION OF MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...A LINE OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND ENTERS THE FAR NORTHWEST BASIN.
THIS LINE CONTINUES ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 23N83W
22N81W 21N79W. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRIKE
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
WEAK SCATTER OVERNIGHT.

OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST BASIN OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...REMNANT
ENERGY FROM A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 18N62W 17N65W 17N68W
CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND SOUTHEAST DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTER SHOWERS
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE MENTIONED ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD REACH THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...ALONG WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NORTH OF 22N. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL MIXED
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER
FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEAK SCATTER SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CAN BE TRACED FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFRICAN COAST TO THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES ALONG
32N10W 25N30W 21N50W 17N63W.

A LINE OF SURFACE CONVERGING WINDS ORIGINATES FROM THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO...TRANSPORTING THE CONVECTION EASTWARD TO THE FAR
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...FROM
23N TO 27N. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEAK SCATTER
OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


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