[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200619
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W ALONG
5N20W 5N30W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 22W-26W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND OVER BRAZIL FROM 1N-2N
BETWEEN 50W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING S OF
LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING
A WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N91W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 24N93W 22N96W.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ARE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE
TROUGH TO 85W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 85W TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN GULF IS UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER SRN ALABAMA. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NE AND
DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
AROUND A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. CUBAN RADAR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WHICH MAY EXTEND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEAR 17N72W BECOMING A DISSIPATING FRONT TO NEAR 15N76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND FAR ERN CUBA. A
CLOUD LINE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE TAIL
END OF THE DYING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE PANAMA COAST ALONG
13N79W TO 9N80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS STAYING DRY AND
CLEAR WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
57W. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
FROM N OF THE BAHAMAS TO 35W ALONG 30N. THE UPPER JET CONTINUES
TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING HISPANIOLA
AND THE FAR SE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N29W ALONG
25N41W 22N53W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
18N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE STATIONARY
PORTION OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS E OF FRONT N OF 27N W OF 21W. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACCOMPANIED AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
NEAR 20N30W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NE BRAZIL TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ACROSS THE ERN
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net