[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2350 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W EQ50W.
WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W AND 27W.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE FOUND
ALONG OR NEAR THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1015 MB LOW IS NEAR 27N93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST BASIN ALONG 24N94W 20N95W. THIS LOW
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
CENTRAL BASIN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS RELATED TO THE CONVERGENCE
GENERATED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE BASIN NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 94W...WITH THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 80 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH
OF 24N TO 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER
FROM A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF SHOW
EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KT OVER MOST OF THE REGION...SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST WEST OF 92W NORTH OF 25N. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE
CURRENT SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING NORTHEAST BECOMING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND ENTER THE NORTHWEST GULF BY LATE
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE EAST TROPICAL PACIFIC
IS STREAMING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST
BASIN...SEEN AS HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W. ON
THE OTHER HAND...MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
EAST OF 83W. THIS DRY UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS IS PREVENTING ANY DEEP
STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEAK SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT...ANALYZED FROM SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO TO THE SOUTH WEST
BASIN ALONG 16N70W 15N74W 12N79W. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE
BASIN. LOOK FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 55W.
AN UPPER LEVEL EAST TO WEST ORIENTED LONGWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REGION ALONG 32N31W 27N42W 24N50W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
ELSEWHERE FAR EAST OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N35W BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF 40W. THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. IN 24 HOURS...LOOK FOR THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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